By Inder Jit

(Released on 15 October 1983)

Developments in Pakistan continue to be followed with close interest and concern both in New Delhi’s South Block, which houses the External Affairs Ministry, and in the non-official world outside. Everyone asks: Is President Zia on his way out? If so, in how much time? Who will take over from him — bets have been offered. Some top newsmen who have been visiting Pakistan over the years are inclined to assert that Gen Zia’s days are numbered and have even set a deadline: end of the year. But there are other journalists and Pak watchers who have their doubts. Often one’s assessment is influenced by one’s personal predilections – and wishful thinking. After all, there is no such thing in life as absolute objectivity. Nothing brought this out better than a remark by a Visiting Pakistani opponent of Gen Zia and his Martial Law regime at a small informal get-together in his honour. Asked if he agreed with the newsmen’s forecast, he replied: “Most people in our country will be happy if it is proved correct! But I can’t predict!”

Broadly, the impressions I have gathered from Indian and Pakistani sources one can trust bring to my mind, more or less, the experience, of my last trip to Pakistan in 1981. Pakistan that I visited then seemed to be much different from the Pakistan that I found in the Indian newspapers on return. Or to put it another way, the India of the newspapers in Pakistan was nothing like the India I had come from. Neither Pakistan nor India are quite what they appear to be or are made out to be by the Press and the media in the other country. Pakistan, if one goes by the headlines, appears at present to be exploding in the face of Gen Zia. The Martial Law regime seems beleaguered in places. Sind appears to have revolted successfully and Baluchistan, according to its leader, Mr Attaullah Mengal in London, seems poised to follow suit and do one better: strike out for independence. Yet the truth, I learn, is not so just as in the case of our own Punjab. Said the Pakistani leader: “Reading our papers, your Punjab seemed to be going up in flames. But it is not.”

Pakistan that I visited then seemed to be much different from the Pakistan that I found in the Indian newspapers on return. Or to put it another way, the India of the newspapers in Pakistan was nothing like the India I had come from. Neither Pakistan nor India are quite what they appear to be or are made out to be by the Press and the media in the other country.

There is no gainsaying the fact that Sind and its people have taken both Islamabad and the world by surprise. When trouble first started on August 14, no one thought it would last beyond a fortnight or so. It has now continued for over two months. Slogans of Sindhudesh have also gone up. But Sind is not Pakistan, even if it is the country’s second largest province. Punjab continues to be largely peaceful, although some trouble has erupted at Faislabad. Open opposition to the Zia regime is limited to the members of the Lahore Bar and the Bar compound. One lawyer marches every day to the Gol Bagh and shouts three slogans: Pakistan Zindabad, MRD Zindabad, Martial Law Murdabad. He is promptly arrested, taken to jail and released the following morning. Baluchistan and the NWFP, too, are largely peaceful and life flows normally, notwithstanding claims by Pakistanis in London. Many have been expecting Badshah Khan’s NWFP also to erupt. But the Pathans of the province seem quite happy with the big money made through smuggling, especially of heroin.

Several Pak watchers believe that the outward calm in Punjab, the NMF and Baluchistan is deceptive and it is only a matter of time that the People’s latent anger will surface. They quote in support an interesting analysis of the recent civic poll by one of Pakistan’s top commentators, Mr A.T. Chaudhri, former editor of the Pakistan Times and the Muslim. In the 1979 elections, says Mr. Chaudhri, 76 per cent of the eligible voters exercised their franchise. “This time polling in Sind was hardly 10 to 15 per cent. (According to some independent reports it was barely 5 per cent. In Baluchistan, it was about 20 per cent, in the NWFP nearly 30 per cent, and in Punjab, of course, well over 35 per cent. On a modest estimate two-thirds of voters per cent of the voters stayed away.” Official spokesmen for their part, insist that over 60 per cent of the voters took part in the poll. But this claim is strongly contested by the MRD leaders. They point that at many places in the interior of Sind no vote was cast. In the Hyderabad division alone some 900 constituencies had no voters and no candidates.

Perhaps, a majority of the people did not like to participate in a poll which was anything but free and fair. (Various ordinances promulgated by the provincial Governors before the poll, it is said, empowered the administration to arbitrarily reject nomination papers and debar the aggrieved party from filing an appeal in any court of law). Perhaps, they wanted to reg6ister their anger and opposition to Gen Zia through a boycott, if the non-official figures are correct. But it would be unwise and dangerous to imagine that Punjab, the NWFP and Baluchistan are marking time to settle scores with Gen Zia. The people of Punjab may or may not like Gen. Zia. Seventy to eighty per cent of them might even be in favour of Pakistan Peoples’ Party, as claimed by its leaders. But no one can ignore the fact that Punjab today virtually rules over the rest of Pakistan and, to quote anti-Zia Pakistanis, “no Britisher ever took up arms against the British empire irrespective of his view about the Government of the day.” At any rate, four of Pakistan’s six full-fledged Army Corps are based in Punjab.

Gen Zia has over the past six years created among his close colleagues in the armed forces and in the bureaucracy a vested interest in the continuance of the system. The top army brass is also currently enjoying most of the juicy plums and cherries -- apart from making money.

Not only that. Gen Zia has over the past six years created among his close colleagues in the armed forces and in the bureaucracy a vested interest in the continuance of the system. Most Generals heading Pakistan’s Army Corps have already reached retirement age and are presently on extension. The top army brass is also currently enjoying most of the juicy plums and cherries — apart from making money. (Pakistan’s Air Chief, according to reliable reports, visited Hollywood not long ago to buy himself a villa in the millionaires’ Beverley Hills. But he turned down most of the houses as these were not good enough!) Most of the top diplomatic assignments are today with the Generals although many of them carry the civilian prefix of Mr. Career diplomats today form only 35 per cent of Pakistan’s Foreign Service. Army officers also head scores of public sector corporations which provide them with fat salaries and, more important, lavish perquisites. Lately, Gen Zia has also turned attention to the bureaucrats, who have been given big increments — increments which none had ever imagined.

Some leading analysts of the Pakistani developments feel that Gen Zia might before long face a revolt from his own Generals. This happened in the past when Gen Yahya Khan took over from Gen Ayub Khan. This could surely happen again. But not as easily as many seem to imagine. True, Mrs Nusrat Bhutto as the PPP Chief has indicated that the MRD is willing to talk to any other General. However, Gen Zia has his own system and style. Unlike Gen Ayub Khan and Gen Yahya Khan, Gen Zia as President has continued to hold the office of Chief of the Army Staff. Second, he has taken full care to ensure that the six Corps Commanders do not get a chance to put their heads together and conspiracy against him. (Significantly, Gen Rahimuddin, Governor of Baluchistan, is simultaneously the Commander of the Army Corps at Multan, which includes two crack Armoured Divisions. A nephew of Dr Zakir Husain, India’s third President, Gen Rahimuddin is also related to Gen Zia; his daughter is married to the President’s son.) Moreover, Gen Zia continues to maintain a good equation with the other Generals, making it clear that he is carrying the burden of the President’s office on their behalf!

Mrs Gandhi has repeatedly denied that India has any intention to interfere in Pakistan's internal affairs. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Gen Zia has tried to exploit her statement as also that of the External Affairs Minister, Mr P.V. Narasimha Rao, to his advantage. Pakistanis have been told once again that India has not reconciled itself to the creation of Pakistan and is anxious to use the present turmoil to break it up and "repeat Bangladesh."

Much in regard to the future will ultimately depend upon two things. First, Gen Zia’s remarkable ability to play divide and rule and to make shrewd political moves. He has already initiated a dialogue with some Opposition parties and indicated his willingness to advance the long-promised poll. Second, the capacity of the eight-party MRD to keep up the tempo of its struggle in Sind. Seasoned observers feel that the movement is bound to have a spill-over effect in Punjab before long. Sind and its capital, Karachi, are of crucial importance to Pakistan at large. These provide the principal market to the produce and products of Punjab. Continued trouble in Sind could virtually land-lock the rest of Pakistan and create new problems for Islamabad. Some demonstrations have taken place in Faisalabad also. This trouble is certain to spread so long as Gen Zia, according to a Pakistani leader, is not able to raise the familiar Indian bogey of renewed threat from New Delhi to Pakistan’s independence and integrity.

Mrs Gandhi has repeatedly denied that India has any intention to interfere in Pakistan’s internal affairs. She did this once again at her relaxed Press conference on Saturday. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Gen Zia has tried to exploit her statement as also that of the External Affairs Minister, Mr P.V. Narasimha Rao, to his advantage. Pakistanis have been told once again that India has not reconciled itself to the creation of Pakistan and is anxious to use the present turmoil to break it up and “repeat Bangladesh.” Undoubtedly, this is grossly, unfair to India. New Delhi stands for a strong, stable and united Pakistan. Equally, India believes that military regimes are basically fragile and Pakistan can be really strong and stable only through the democratic system based on the will of the people. Gen Zia himself has acknowledged this by his repeated offer to hold elections. It is now up to him to keep his word and hold elections at an early date — and not blame India and others for Pakistan’s present troubles. — INFA