BJP Juggernaut

 By Poonam I Kaushish

In Delhi hot sultry weather, political pundits are grappling with a Rubic puzzle: Which Party and which State will BJP’s juggernaut steam roll? Or, has it reached the pinnacle of its growth? Is it now running out of steam? Is it invincible? Is its dominance good or bad for the country incubated by a weak Opposition? Is India experiencing democratic backsliding or a period of strong-majority governance?

The answer lies on how one reads BJP’s present standing against the backdrop of its sustained electoral success, organizational strength and central role in politics since 2014. Like any dominant political force, it has both supporters and critics. If stable governance, decisive leadership, macro-development, infrastructure and policy continuity are the highest priorities, a dominant BJP is seen as beneficial.

However, if institutional checks and balances, competitive elections and robust Opposition are considered essential for democratic health, prolonged dominance by BJP raises concerns. Critics view BJPs overarching strategy as a move to establish political hegemony, often equating national loyalty with allegiance to Party and disruptive force fueling debate over future of pluralism and democracy.

There is concentration of power in the Prime Minister’s Office, increasing polarization, democratic and institutional backsliding, autonomy of Election Commission and investigative agencies is questionable, use of ICE (income tax, CBI, ED) against Opposition leaders where enforcement appears selective.

Today BJP rules over 20 States, 14 on its own steam, 6 with allies and 2 UTs. It has continued to expand into regions where it was once weak. Its major breakthrough was in West Bengal after years of building its organization suggesting it can still grow geographically and is India’s strongest national Party with a large committed cadre, financial resources and a broad leadership pipeline extending beyond Modi, under the RSS Hindutva umbrella.

Besides, its ability and capacity to adjust its campaign strategy ably assisted by a fragmented Opposition and topped by defections engineered from regional Parties, build alliances across ideology, disciplined election machinery and substantial grassroots presence, BJP now rides a wave of nationalism across the country.

Paradoxically, after 12 years in power, anti-incumbency is beginning to set-in in many Hindi-speaking States where BJP already commands very high vote shares, leaving limited room for further expansion,  Southern States  remain challenging as regional Parties continue to have deep local roots. Having lost its majority in 2024 Lok Sabha election it governs with coalition partners, showing that electoral dominance has limits.

However, the bigger question is not whether it grows, but how it grows. The Party can still increase its influence by winning State, expanding in States where it has historically been weaker, defection from regional Parties, maintaining coalition leadership even if its own Parliamentary seats fluctuates.

Yet, political dominance has historically been cyclical. Parties that appear unassailable can later lose ground, while those thought to be declining can recover. BJP remains the country’s dominant political force, but whether it has scope for growth depends on future elections, leadership after Modi, economic performance and Opposition’s ability to unite.

Already, there are signs BJP’s rate of expansion has slowed compared with its rapid rise from 2014-2019, post that consolidation has been mixed — Its’ capable of winning, but with growth which is less dramatic and more contested. Whether this is a temporary plateau or beginning of decline depends on the economic situation, employment opportunities, education and  whether Opposition Parties can build durable alliances and credible State-level leadership.

What is more worrying is that BJP has acquired the debilitating features of “Congress culture”. Internal rivalries, local resistance to sitting legislators and its overdependence on “negative vote” emotionally secured. Today, like Congress, it has come to be perceived as ‘aik hi thali ke chatet batte.” Confessed a leader, “Unfortunately, na to Congress ke pas danav hai, na hamare pas devta.”

Even the Party’s bitterest critics concede that over 12 years it has achieved what was once considered impossible: Weaponised Hinduism as an election-winner. Till the Party came to power 2014 politicians believed while minorities may vote on religious identity basis, most Hindus were secure and comfortable in a country where they constituted the overwhelming majority to allow their religion to influence their voting decisions. As long as Hindus, who constitute 80% of population, vote for it in large numbers, BJP will win elections whereby its  electoral juggernaut would be hard to stop.

But there is a downside. It has to periodically re-assure its Hindu constituency that it is implementing a pro-Hindu agenda. Instances are plenty of BJP-ruled States running amok in their pursuit of this nakedly pro-Hindu agenda, love-jihad, ghar wapsi, meat ban etc while the Centre discreetly averts its gaze. Hence, weaponising Hinduism will win elections for BJP. But it will not help the Party run a peaceful and equitable India.

Also like any long-governing Party, it will eventually face fatigue among sections of the electorate whereby voters may become dissatisfied over unmet expectations, inflation, unemployment, rural incomes or local governance issues. One of its long-term challenges is demonstrating that it can maintain the same level of public support after the Modi era, whenever that transition occurs.

Certainly, BJP which faces mounting discomforts of two terms incumbency needs fresh thinking and ideas. Its recent rout in Tamil Nadu-Kerala and earlier Karnataka and its failure to make inroads in 5 Southern States which send 130 MPs have made it incumbent to begin its scorecard therein.

Overall, the BJP’s biggest challenge today is arguably not defeating rivals in every election but sustained broad public support after years in power while managing leadership succession and meeting increasingly high voter expectation.

The irony is difficult to miss. BJP has gained at the cost of not just Opposition but also its allies. Congress continues to do badly itself and is seeing its allies atrophy. What is driving this schism? The shortest answer is the Indian polity is in a winner takes all phase right now.

What next? BJP has already thrown down the gauntlet by projecting and redefining nationalism, refreshing Hindutva and country’s self respect. Given its winning streak it looks like an unbeatable monolith. While Opposition has yet to zero in on a winning narrative onwards, as it continues to whine about BJP vitiating the atmosphere by crippling institutions even as it questions whether elections will be free, fair or foul.

Undoubtedly, power is a heady mixture and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Already the Hindutva sycophancy brigade is busy chanting TINA (there is no alternative). But the coming months pose a stiff challenge with unemployment at 45%, rising oil prices, farm distress, consumers buying less and a slowing economy. Undoubtedly, bread-and-butter issues will be back on the economic delivery table.

There is no gainsaying that BJP and its Hindutva cahoots can no longer afford to be complacent or traditional as young voters do not have the patience for inane diatribe, they demand a better deal for their tomorrow. The Party needs to relive what it ad nauseum chants, “The real meaning of politics is not power but service.” Today, of a billion strong people are waiting for acche din to arrive.

In the long term it is imperative BJP realizes that no amount of good luck can cover the lack of substantive promised achievements. Importantly, can and will BJP be able to reconstruct the language of democracy and pluralism?  —— INFA